District Scale Escalation of Heatwave Extremes in Rajasthan, India: Spatial Patterns, Temporal Acceleration, and Climate Risk Implications

Abstract

Extreme heat events have emerged as one of the most critical climate related hazards in South Asia, with arid and semi arid regions exhibiting particularly rapid intensification. Rajasthan, India’s largest state by area, is highly vulnerable due to its climatic diversity, water scarcity, and socio economic sensitivity. This study presents a district level assessment of heatwave dynamics across six representative districts of Rajasthan—Bikaner, Jodhpur, Jaipur, Kota, Hanumangarh, and Udaipur—covering the period 2015–2024. Using meteorological heatwave criteria and comparative statistical visualization techniques, the study examines spatial variability, temporal evolution, and emerging climatic signals associated with extreme heat. Results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with western arid districts consistently recording the highest heatwave frequency, while southern hill regions exhibit relatively lower exposure. Temporal trend analysis demonstrates a statistically consistent escalation in heatwave days across all districts, particularly after 2020, indicating a systemic climatic shift rather than episodic variability. The convergence of rising heatwave trends across diverse climatic zones suggests large scale atmospheric forcing combined with land–surface feedback mechanisms. The extended discussion integrates climatic drivers, environmental stress, agricultural vulnerability, water resource depletion, and public health implications, highlighting heatwaves as a multidimensional risk. The findings align with global and regional climate change projections and emphasize the importance of district scale assessments for accurate vulnerability mapping. The study contributes empirical evidence relevant to climate adaptation planning, heat health action strategies, and regional sustainability frameworks in arid and semi arid environments.